That means you can pick the team most likely to win while still getting good differentiation from how others are picking. The Patriots provide the best of both worlds, as you're getting the favorite and getting them when the public is close to evenly split. MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool adviceĬategory: Value Favorite Across All Game Winner Pools Getting a slight favorite at home being picked by less than 20 percent of the public qualifies. In a confidence pool with weekly prizes, you want to push for more points when you have pot odds in your favor. Why? With so many entries likely going the other way, you want to set up a scenario where if the Colts win, you make a big leap while most of your opponents get no points. If you are in a weekly contest that uses confidence points, you should consider picking Indianapolis at a high confidence value, especially in a pool with lots of entries. That makes taking Indianapolis a big value play in weekly contests. Two other games feature a 2.5-point underdog, and the public is picking the Texans and Giants on average more than twice as often as they are picking the Colts. The public is giving the Colts very little chance here relative to the odds. So, this spread is already accounting for his injury, and, if anything, the recent news has been positive, with Wentz practicing early in the week. This game originally had the Colts as 2.5-point favorites at the end of July in the betting markets and moved five points on the news of QB Carson Wentz’s foot injury. The Seahawks are road favorites at Indianapolis, and the public is heavily on board with the Seahawks. MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Survivor pool strategy | Pick 'em strategyĬategory: Value Gamble Play in Weekly Contests If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day. Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. (If you want our game-by-game pick recommendations for all of your specific pools, use our Football Pick 'em Picks product.) We also call out matchups where picking an upset is probably a terrible idea.
What we are saying is that the teams mentioned in this post provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 1 picks from your pool opponents by taking on little or no additional risk.
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(To learn why, check out our free articles about strategy for winning football pick 'em pools.) The best Week 1 picks for your NFL pool depend on things like your pool's size, rules, and prize structure. We are not saying that you should make all of the picks in this article - the upset picks especially. This approach to making picks is a big reason why since 2014, an average of 71 percent of our subscribers have reported winning a prize in a football pick 'em contest.
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